Where Did It All Go Wrong?

Where did it all go wrong? Whilst this is the title of a massively under-rated Oasis song, it is also a phrase that can be applied to Derby County’s run of form at the minute. Last month I wrote a mid-season report about The Rams and the topsy-turvy nature of the season already. Back then though they were doing well and were about to destroy bottom of the league Coventry 1-0 with a late goal at Pride Park, and in turn make it 5 wins in a row. Seven matches have been and gone since then and precisely 0 games have been won.  

Let us first discuss last night’s game against Leicester. I got off the train at 19:26 and headed towards Radio Derby. On my way I passed many people decked out in the black and white. As a punctual kind of guy my first thoughts were ‘you’re going to miss kick-off’ but then thoughts turned elsewhere. These people looked happy and optimistic (it’s amazing how much you can tell from someone after only viewing them for 3 seconds) and that surprised me. Looking at all the facts, there was absolutely no reason to be optimistic ahead of the match, but football has a tendency to bring out strange feelings and unnecessary optimism. In the failed Premier League season of 2007-08 my brother Chris, who shall remain unnamed, predicted a Derby victory before every single game. Look on the positive side, at least his prediction came true once.

Last night the optimism of one fan drained after 20 minutes. He rang the studio on his way out to say that he had left the ground and wouldn’t be renewing his season ticket. It was the sort of performance that induced pure irrationalism, and I have been known to do similar things on Football Manager, so I sympathised. Derby were worse than very average.

The decision to bring in Tom Carroll on loan and send Miles Addison out on loan to Bournemouth evoked confusion and despair. The decision to bring in Tom Carroll and keep ignoring Chris Maguire (a long term transfer target that simply never plays) evoked confusion and despair. Poor Tom Carroll appears to evoke confusion and despair, through no fault of his own. At a time when Gareth Roberts is the only left back and the now injured John Brayford is the only proper right-back, it seems strange that it was a midfielder Clough used the loan market for. The centre midfielders that have played the majority of the season, Craig Bryson and Jeff Hendrick, whilst both being very solid Championship players, are much of the same. Were one of them to play alongside an Inigo Idiakez type player then things would probably be different.

The strikers are as shy in front of goal as I am around females, and between you and me, you aren’t going to score with that attitude. Two goals in the last seven matches tells its own story. When was the last time Derby had an out and out goalscorer that the opposition feared? Leicester Reserves’ Steve Howard I do believe. Callum Ball has a decent future by the looks of it, Theo Robinson not so much, and it remains to be seen whether Nathan Tyson can stay fit long enough to even form an opinion. The return of Steve Davies offers a glimmer of hope as he has quality, but he simply does not play enough games (although I accept it doesn’t help when you’ve had your skull bashed in).

It is no secret that finances at Derby are very tight. Clough cannot ‘do a Leicester’ and attract high quality players for large money and wages in an attempt to try and buy promotion. His hands are tied in that sense, yet the unpoplular owners, GSE, who restrict these dealings may become more popular in future years if/when more football clubs (Rangers, Portsmouth etc) get into huge trouble for spending way beyond their means. Derby will emerge as a healthy club as a result of the scrutinised running, and despite what anyone says, it is better that there is a team to support than none at all.

In-depth studies into football finances state that the team with the highest wage bill should finish top, and the one with the lowest should finish bottom; any manager that takes their team to a higher placed finish than their wage bills is overachieving.  I find it hard to believe that a club of Derby’s size has a wage bill that is less than 18 other (based on last seasons finish) Championship teams, so on that basis Clough is underachieving*, and that is a view the majority will agree with However, it is about realism. Derby should be finishing higher than 19^th in the league, ABSOLUTELY, but they should not be shoe-ins for promotion every season just because they are heavily supported and won the league twice in the 70’s. A top half finish would be a realistic expectation at this point in the life of Derby County.

Clough has to deal with unrealistic expectations from many Derby fans, but their criticisms of the way Derby’s form fluctuates and declines so rapidly every season is a valid one. The way his team performs so inadequately for large parts of the season is not down to finance, but poor motivational and tactical skills. I suspect Derby are not going to get relegated this season, and they are 6 points better off than they were last season, but this season stinks of missed opportunities. A tweet last night read: “Derby were once a team to be proud of, but not anymore. Clough has got to go”. It is certainly a hot topic of debate. Does Clough have to go? Or will these violent swings in form deteriorate over time?

I started with an Oasis song, so i’ll end on a Take That song. Things can only get better. Surely?

*If it turns out that Derby’s wage bill is actually only 19^th highest in the league then this argument I have is wrong and I am happy to accept that