Where Did It All Go Wrong?

Where did it all go wrong? Whilst this is the title of a massively under-rated Oasis song, it is also a phrase that can be applied to Derby County’s run of form at the minute. Last month I wrote a mid-season report about The Rams and the topsy-turvy nature of the season already. Back then though they were doing well and were about to destroy bottom of the league Coventry 1-0 with a late goal at Pride Park, and in turn make it 5 wins in a row. Seven matches have been and gone since then and precisely 0 games have been won.  

Let us first discuss last night’s game against Leicester. I got off the train at 19:26 and headed towards Radio Derby. On my way I passed many people decked out in the black and white. As a punctual kind of guy my first thoughts were ‘you’re going to miss kick-off’ but then thoughts turned elsewhere. These people looked happy and optimistic (it’s amazing how much you can tell from someone after only viewing them for 3 seconds) and that surprised me. Looking at all the facts, there was absolutely no reason to be optimistic ahead of the match, but football has a tendency to bring out strange feelings and unnecessary optimism. In the failed Premier League season of 2007-08 my brother Chris, who shall remain unnamed, predicted a Derby victory before every single game. Look on the positive side, at least his prediction came true once.

Last night the optimism of one fan drained after 20 minutes. He rang the studio on his way out to say that he had left the ground and wouldn’t be renewing his season ticket. It was the sort of performance that induced pure irrationalism, and I have been known to do similar things on Football Manager, so I sympathised. Derby were worse than very average.

The decision to bring in Tom Carroll on loan and send Miles Addison out on loan to Bournemouth evoked confusion and despair. The decision to bring in Tom Carroll and keep ignoring Chris Maguire (a long term transfer target that simply never plays) evoked confusion and despair. Poor Tom Carroll appears to evoke confusion and despair, through no fault of his own. At a time when Gareth Roberts is the only left back and the now injured John Brayford is the only proper right-back, it seems strange that it was a midfielder Clough used the loan market for. The centre midfielders that have played the majority of the season, Craig Bryson and Jeff Hendrick, whilst both being very solid Championship players, are much of the same. Were one of them to play alongside an Inigo Idiakez type player then things would probably be different.

The strikers are as shy in front of goal as I am around females, and between you and me, you aren’t going to score with that attitude. Two goals in the last seven matches tells its own story. When was the last time Derby had an out and out goalscorer that the opposition feared? Leicester Reserves’ Steve Howard I do believe. Callum Ball has a decent future by the looks of it, Theo Robinson not so much, and it remains to be seen whether Nathan Tyson can stay fit long enough to even form an opinion. The return of Steve Davies offers a glimmer of hope as he has quality, but he simply does not play enough games (although I accept it doesn’t help when you’ve had your skull bashed in).

It is no secret that finances at Derby are very tight. Clough cannot ‘do a Leicester’ and attract high quality players for large money and wages in an attempt to try and buy promotion. His hands are tied in that sense, yet the unpoplular owners, GSE, who restrict these dealings may become more popular in future years if/when more football clubs (Rangers, Portsmouth etc) get into huge trouble for spending way beyond their means. Derby will emerge as a healthy club as a result of the scrutinised running, and despite what anyone says, it is better that there is a team to support than none at all.

In-depth studies into football finances state that the team with the highest wage bill should finish top, and the one with the lowest should finish bottom; any manager that takes their team to a higher placed finish than their wage bills is overachieving.  I find it hard to believe that a club of Derby’s size has a wage bill that is less than 18 other (based on last seasons finish) Championship teams, so on that basis Clough is underachieving*, and that is a view the majority will agree with However, it is about realism. Derby should be finishing higher than 19^th in the league, ABSOLUTELY, but they should not be shoe-ins for promotion every season just because they are heavily supported and won the league twice in the 70’s. A top half finish would be a realistic expectation at this point in the life of Derby County.

Clough has to deal with unrealistic expectations from many Derby fans, but their criticisms of the way Derby’s form fluctuates and declines so rapidly every season is a valid one. The way his team performs so inadequately for large parts of the season is not down to finance, but poor motivational and tactical skills. I suspect Derby are not going to get relegated this season, and they are 6 points better off than they were last season, but this season stinks of missed opportunities. A tweet last night read: “Derby were once a team to be proud of, but not anymore. Clough has got to go”. It is certainly a hot topic of debate. Does Clough have to go? Or will these violent swings in form deteriorate over time?

I started with an Oasis song, so i’ll end on a Take That song. Things can only get better. Surely?

*If it turns out that Derby’s wage bill is actually only 19^th highest in the league then this argument I have is wrong and I am happy to accept that

The Big One...

For those with a DE or NG postcode, Sunday’s match between Derby County and Nottingham Forest is the biggest match of the season. Live in front of a national television audience, the match has finally got recognition for what is usually a full-blooded and drama fuelled game (Stuart Atwell anyone?). City v United, Arsenal v Tottenham, Newcastle v Sunderland, Everton v Liverpool (I could go on, I really could. I have a list of all the world’s local derbies on my living room wall) are no different passion wise to the East Midland’s affair (and no Leicester, we do not care about you).

The difference with this game is that Derby are going into it as favourites. In previous years, a Nottingham Forest team led by Billy Davies were predominantly the better team and the ones with aspirations for higher glories. Now, after departing with Steve Mclaren, and welcoming (not sure many did welcome him, but hey ho) Steve Cotterill, Forest find themselves firmly in the middle of Struggle Street without a map to help them get off it. Few could have imagined Forest’s season would turn out so disastrously when they were 1 goal up and 1 man up against Derby with 88 minutes left to play at the City Ground in mid September. The comeback from Derby may well have been a hammer blow for the Reds. In previous years, such a thing would simply not have happened.

Derby on the other hand have eyes set on the playoffs. If it wasn’t for 3-2 defeat at Barnsley midweek they’d have entered the game in formidable form. They hadn’t conceded in 4 league matches, and were unbeaten in 6 (Ok, maybe not formidable when compared to other great records, but for Derby, that was pretty special form). They know how to grind matches out, unlike Forest who know how not to defend, and how not to score.

So on paper, Derby with home advantage look to be absolute certainties to win the A52 derby, and with it the Brian Clough Cup, but we all know that football is not played on paper. Form goes out the window for local derbies. I thought I’d dedicate this paragraph to footballing clichés, but I’ve ran out now, so let’s move on.

Former Derby man Danny Higginbotham joined Forest on loan in the week, and it is hoped he can do something about Forest’s terrible defence (a defence made weaker by the sale of Wes Morgan to Leicester). How the Forest fans must be hoping for the old ‘score against your old team’ piece of luck to be on their side.

Lee Camp cuts a very unpopular figure amongst the Derby faithful. Derby born and bred, he has done much to distance himself from his past. As well as saving a penalty late on for Forest (as a loan player) against Derby at Pride Park in 2008 and celebrating like a mad man, he struts around the pitch walking as if he has a roll of carpet under each arm. He has not been the most popular man on the banks of the Trent this season either after many poor performances, linked to him being unhappy at not getting a Premier League move to Swansea in the summer. His suggestion that Forest v Leicester is a bigger match than Forest v Derby also irked fans from both teams. Such suggestions come under the category of ‘bullshine’.

Up front, Forest look bereft of ideas. Unlike in previous years when they had Robbie Earnshaw and Dexter Blackstock banging goals in, they now rely on Ishmael Miller, who hasn’t hit it off at Forest, the very average Marlon Harewood, and Marcus Tudgay who is short of goals. Whether Blackstock can return to the form he had before his horrific injury and save them remains to be seen. A Burnley supporting friend of mine went to the City Ground midweek and gave me a report of “they’re a shower of shite mate”. That tells you more than any analysis I can give you.

For Derby, defence has been key. Fielding (no pun intended) a first choice back 5 of Fielding, Brayford, Shackell, Barker and Roberts, the Rams have been nothing but solid in recent games (forgetting Barnsley). Attacking wise they lack that cutting edge though. Callum Ball has emerged as a very bright prospect, and Theo Robinson will score 1 in every 35 chances but it could be a fit again Nathan Tyson that emerges as a match winner on Sunday against his former club.

It’s a match in which evokes pure dislike, but both sets of fans have been united on Twitter this week after a young Nottingham chav wrote for his wish for Forest fans to repeat the scenes in Egypt this week by ‘killing the sheepshaggers on Sunday’. He responded to fans from both sides telling him what a plonker he is by telling them they either had AIDS, or that he'd been with their mother the previous night. Seems like a character. You may not be surprised to know the police are involved, just a shame the hangman isn't.

Predictions... Lee Camp to be booed excessively by the home fans, Nathan Tyson to be booed excessively by the away fans, a cracking atmosphere and a few goals.

I’ve tried to write the article without indicating where my loyalties lie (even though 99% of you reading this will already know), so i’m ditching my objectiveness now...COME ON YOU RAMS!